Prisoner's Probability to Live

You are a prisoner sentenced to death. The Emperor offers you a chance to live by playing a simple game. He gives you 50 black marbles, 50 white marbles and 2 empty bowls. He then says, "Divide these 100 marbles into these 2 bowls. You can divide them any way you like as long as you use all the marbles. Then I will blindfold you and mix the bowls and marbles up. You can then choose one bowl and remove one marble. If the marble is white, you live, but if the marble is black...you die.

How do you divide the marbles up so that you have the greatest probability of choosing a white marble?

Solution »

Place 1 white marble in one bowl, and place the rest of the marbles in the other bowl (49 whites, and 50 blacks).


This way you begin with a 50/50 chance of choosing the bowl with just one white marble and living. But even if you choose the other bowl, you still have an almost 50% chance of picking one of the 49 white marbles. There are no guarantees in life, but this is your best bet at surviving.